Key West Transit Development Plan FY2025-2034

2.1 Service Area Description

High Scenario: » Population projections: 90,500 (2025) to 109,500 (2050). » Higher growth from 2022: Ranging from 7.8% (2025) to 30.4% (2050). » Growth from previous projection: Positive and decreasing, ranging from 7.8% (2025) to 2.5% (2050). Figure 2-2: Monroe County Population Projection

2.1.2 Population Projections Figure 2-2 presents population projections for Monroe County for the years 2025 to 2050, categorized into three scenarios: low, medium, and high. These scenarios provide a range of potential population outcomes, with the low scenario indicating a decline, the medium scenario suggesting moderate growth, and the high scenario suggesting significant growth over the specified time frame. These projections are based on data from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). BEBR at the University of Florida produces Florida’s official state and local population estimates and projections. These changes have important implications as they affect the demand for transportation and are essential for local and regional planning, including infrastructure development, resource allocation, and policy decisions. BEBR provides population projections on a countywide basis in five-year increments. They regularly update their population projections based on the latest data and methodologies that consider factors such as historical population trends and economic conditions. Low Scenario: » Population projections: 80,300 (2025) to 67,800 (2050). » Negative growth from 2022: Ranging from -4.4% (2025) to -19.2% (2050). » Growth from previous projection: Decreasing over time, ranging from -4.4% (2025) to -3.7% (2050). Medium Scenario: » Population projections: 85,400 (2025) to 88,700 (2050). » Growth from 2022: Ranging from 1.7% (2025) to 5.6% (2050). » Growth from previous projection: Positive but decreasing, ranging from 1.7% (2025) to 0.1% (2050).

120,000

100,000

109,500

106,800

80,000

103,600

100,100

95,800

90,500

88,700

87,100

88,600

88,400

88,000

85,400

60,000

80,300

78,400

75,900

73,200

70,400

67,800

40,000

20,000

0

2025 2030 2035 2040

2045

2050

Population Projections

Medium

High

Low

*Baseline value - April 1, 2022, Monroe County Population: 83,961 Data Source: BEBR: Projections of Florida Population by County, 2025–2050, with Estimates for 2022

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Transit Development Plan FY 2025–2034