Key West Transit Development Plan FY2025-2034

7.4 No-Build Ridership Forecast

An analysis was also conducted to forecast ridership for the On-Demand Key West Rides service. the Key West Transit On-demand Ridership in 2034 is forecasted to 52,690 with a 2.86% increase compared to 2024. The results are summarized in Table 7-2 . Table 7-2: Forecasted Ridership for On-Demand Key West Rides Service

7.4 No-Build Ridership Forecast Prior to performing ridership estimates, the TBEST model was validated based on route level ridership data obtained from KWT. Once the model was validated, ridership forecasts for the base year (2024) and horizon year (2034) were developed. The analysis was performed to estimate Ten Year demand for the existing service. The ridership forecasts reflect the no-build condition, which assumes that no modifications to the existing system are made. The forecasted annual ridership by route in 2024 and 2034 is shown in Table 7-1 . The findings indicate an overall increase in ridership is projected of only 4.6% by 2034, with similar growth anticipated across the Duval Loop, Lower Keys Shuttle, and Workforce Express routes. This analysis reveals that the KWT system, in its current state, is significantly limited in its ability to generate substantial additional ridership per year

% Change

2024 2034

Key West On-demand Ridership

51,226

52,690

2.86%

7.5 Traditional Transit Market Analysis Data from the U.S. Census can be used to compare demographic information, particularly those characteristics that are highly correlated with a person's or household's need for transit, with KWT's existing transit network. In this section, the transit demand market was assessed based on two perspectives, traditional transit market using Transit Orientation Index (TOI) and discretionary transit market using Density Threshold Assessment (DTA). These analyses were conducted using GIS-based tools to evaluate whether the current transit system is providing adequate coverage to areas with high transit demand potential. The Transit Orientation Index (TOI) identifies the traditional transit markets that historically have had a higher propensity to use transit and are dependent on public transit for their transportation needs. In this analysis, five demographic characteristics were utilized. They are as follows: older adults, youth, low-income households, and zero-car households.

over the next ten years without any service improvements. Table 7-1: Forecasted Annual Ridership by Route

Annual Boardings

Route Name

2024 126,235

2034 % Change

Duval Loop DL Lower Keys Shuttle LKS Workforce Express WFX

131,962

4.5%

99,040

103,695

4.7%

17,225

17,997

4.5%

Totals 242,500

253,654

4.6%

Transit Development Plan FY 2025–2034

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