Key West Transit Development Plan FY2025-2034

CHAPTER 7: TRANSIT DEMAND ASSESSMENT RESULTS 7.0 Transit Demand

Transit ridership demand projections for KWT’s existing transit network were estimated using Transit Boardings and Estimation Tool (TBEST), the FDOT-recommended and approved ridership estimation software for TDPs. This tool can gauge route-level and systemwide demand for existing system and proposed networks. 7.1 Model Inputs, Assumptions and Limitations The T-BEST model uses a series of demographic and transit network data to forecast ridership. The inputs and the assumptions made in modeling the Key West Transit system are described below. The Key West model used the latest T-BEST Land Use Model structure (T-BEST Land Use Model 2023) and the underlying parcel-level data from the Florida Department of Revenue (DOR). The DOR parcel data is integrated with the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation land use categories to produce trip estimates by parcel. It should be noted that the model may overestimate demand in some cases as it cannot consider other factors that impact transit ridership such as travel speeds compared to other modes, congestion, roadway connectivity, walkability, parking supply, real-time economic conditions, fuel prices, and marketing.

This section summarizes the demand and mobility needs assessment for Key West Transit. The demand assessment techniques used are summarized, followed by the results of each analysis used to assess demand for potential transit service alternatives identified in the development of the FY 2025-34 TDP. Service quality and the needs of existing customers are top priorities for Key West Transit. To further these objectives, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to better understand and predict transit demand within the service area. The analysis includes a TBEST analysis and a more streamlined market analysis, which both are invaluable for recommendations for the potential expansion of KWT service. Ten-year ridership projections are a requirement for TDP major updates FDOT’s guidance for forecasting ridership includes the following: “An estimation of the community’s demand for transit service using the planning tools provided by the Department, or a department-approved transit demand estimation technique with supporting demographic, land use, transportation, and transit data. The result of the transit demand estimation process shall be a ten-year annual projection of transit ridership.”

Transit Development Plan FY 2025–2034

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